NYT > Home Page: China Issues Plan to Narrow Income Gap

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China Issues Plan to Narrow Income Gap
Feb 5th 2013, 18:01

HONG KONG — The Chinese government on Tuesday issued a long-awaited plan to narrow the gulf between rich and poor, offering broad vows to lift the incomes of workers and farmers and choke off corrupt wealth but few specific goals to rein in the nation's wide inequality.

The proposal was mired for months in an internal dispute about whether to aggressively scale back the rising salaries and benefits of some officials working for state-owned business and banks. The document that emerged from the discussions is filled with commitments to deal with that issue and other sources of public concern about the gap between the incomes of residents of dirt-poor villages and those living in privileged urban enclaves.

"There are some stark problems in income distribution that need urgent solving," said the plan, which was issued on the central government's Web site. "Chiefly, there remain quite large disparities in urban-rural development and incomes, income allocation is poorly ordered, and there are quite serious problems with invisible and unlawful sources of income." The document was drafted by the National Development and Reform Commission and other central agencies.

The income distribution plan was one of the initiatives promised by the departing Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, who leaves office in March. But it also underscores the extent to which the country's new generation of leaders under Xi Jinping has also promised to expand state spending on health care, education and social welfare.

Mr. Xi, who was appointed Communist Party chief in November and is set to become state president in March, has said he wants to accelerate economic changes in the spirit of Deng Xiaoping, who began the process of transforming China into a more modern economy after decades of rule by Mao Zedong. But in the process of introducing market forces in China, such changes have starkly widened income disparities.

Since Mr. Xi took office, Chinese news media have reported on a succession of officials who have been accused of siphoning bribes and public money into their pockets. The income plan, however, does not offer specific new initiatives to reduce corruption.

Beyond a general commitment to eliminate sources of illegal income, the plan says that officials must abide by already announced rules to report earnings and assets to superiors. Many experts, however, have said such rules are ineffective without public disclosure as well.

Average disposable annual income for Chinese urban residents in 2012 was the equivalent of about $4,000, an increase of 9.6 percent after taking inflation into account. Average rural net income was just under $1,300 per person, a rise of 10.7 percent after adjusting for inflation, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics announced in January.

The bureau also said that in 2012 China's Gini Coefficient, a widely used index of income inequality, was 0.474, slightly higher than levels of inequality in the United States, where income disparity has widened sharply in recent decades and now stands as one of the highest among advanced industrial nations. But some economists have said China's measure is actually much higher, when illicit and poorly reported sources of wealth are taken into account.

"Deepening reform of the income distribution system is an extremely arduous and complex task of systemic engineering," the new plan says. "It cannot be achieved in one step."

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NYT > Home Page: Judge Jonathan Lippman Seeks to Overhaul Bail Process

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Judge Jonathan Lippman Seeks to Overhaul Bail Process
Feb 5th 2013, 16:59

New York's chief judge on Tuesday called for a major overhaul of the bail process for defendants awaiting trial in state courts, saying the current system unfairly detains many people charged with low-level crimes and may fail to protect the public from dangerous defendants.

In his annual State of the Judiciary speech in Albany, the chief judge, Jonathan Lippman, said that New York was one of only four states that do not allow judges to consider public safety when making a bail determination. Only the risk that the defendant will return to court for trial can be assessed.

"As a result, defendants may be put back on the street with insufficient regard to public safety, with possibly catastrophic consequences," the judge said. "This makes no sense and certainly does not serve the best interests of our communities and our citizens."

Conversely, Judge Lippman said the bail system was stacked against those accused of minor crimes, keeping them in jail at great personal hardship and weakening their resolve in plea negotiations. The judge called that outcome "unfair" and said it "strips our justice system of its credibility."

He was harshly critical of the outsize role he said that bail bond businesses have taken in the process. The judge said bondsmen, who essentially ensure defendants will return to court for a fee and access to collateral, had typically ignored defendants held on low bail amounts because their fees were based on a percentage.

In recent years, the use of bail bonds and pretrial release rates have fallen, he said.

"With precious little public accountability, bail bondsmen exercise enormous influence over who is released pending trial and who stays in jail," he said. "The fact is that, in many cases, bail bondsmen, not judges and not prosecutors, ultimately make the most critical decisions affecting the liberty of those accused of crimes in our criminal justice system."

The judge suggested taking "the profit motive" out of bail bonding by encouraging more involvement of nonprofit organizations, something that was enabled by state legislation that passed last year and that the judge said had been a success in the Bronx.

He also called for the expansion of supervised release programs that monitor defendants awaiting trial and provide them access to social services, like programs to help overcome drug and alcohol abuse. Increasing the use of those programs would save significant amounts of public money, he said, because pretrial detention costs an average of $19,000 per defendant nationally, whereas monitoring a defendant in the community costs less than $4,600.

"You do the math," the judge said. "There is enormous potential savings if we can figure out how to safely and responsibly keep nonviolent defendants in the community while their cases are pending."

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NYT > Home Page: Obama Congress Budget Cuts

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Obama Congress Budget Cuts
Feb 5th 2013, 16:37

WASHINGTON — President Obama on Tuesday will call on lawmakers to quickly pass a package of limited spending cuts and tax changes that can head off the automatic, across-the-board reductions that are set to take effect on March 1, an administration official said.

The president will deliver the request in a statement on Tuesday afternoon at the White House. The official said Mr. Obama will acknowledge that a broader budget agreement is unlikely to be reached by next month's deadline when the cuts to domestic and military programs will go into effect.

Asking for quick action to avoid the automatic cuts, often called the sequester, is a reflection of the impact that White House officials believe the cuts would have on the American economy and possibly around the world. Officials say the deep, indiscriminate cuts would cost hundreds of thousands of jobs as government agencies and contractors shrink spending and payrolls.

"With our economy poised to continue to strengthen this year, the president will make clear that we can't see another self-inflicted wound from Washington," the White House official said. "The president will urge Congress to come together and act to ensure these devastating cuts to defense and job-creating programs don't take effect."

Officials did not say whether Mr. Obama will detail a specific package of cuts and tax adjustments. In the past, Mr. Obama has said cuts in spending must be balanced by effort to raise new tax revenue by closing loopholes on wealthy Americans and the oil and gas industries.

Mr. Obama is set to deliver the remarks on Tuesday afternoon, about the time the Congressional Budget Office is scheduled to release its annual economic report and its latest projection on the country's deficit.

The report by the budget office will provide the first official update of the country's deficit since the president and Congress agreed to spending cuts and tax increases to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff at the end of last year.

New deficit projections will define the scope of the nation's spending problem and will help to shape the contours of the fiscal fights between Mr. Obama and the Republicans in Congress in the coming years.

The push by the president to avoid the sequester is also an admission that efforts to reach a bigger deal with Republicans to cut spending and raise revenues is not likely to be reached in the coming months. House Republicans this week criticized Mr. Obama for failing to meet Monday's deadline to submit a budget to Congress.

"This was supposed to be the day that the president submitted his budget to the Congress, but it's not coming. It's gonna be late," House Speaker John A. Boehner said in remarks from the House floor Monday. "That's too bad. Our economy could use some presidential leadership right now."

House Republicans blame Mr. Obama for first proposing the automatic cuts, though Congress passed them in the summer of 2011 as part of a deal to raise the nation's debt ceiling. The cuts were slated to go into effect Jan. 1, but Congress delayed them during negotiations last December.

Eager to avoid the cuts to military spending, House Republicans have already proposed different spending reductions that Mr. Obama and Democrats say would be harmful to important domestic programs.

"Republicans have twice voted to replace these arbitrary cuts with common-sense cuts and reforms that protect our national defense," Mr. Boehner said in a statement Tuesday. "The president's sequester should be replaced with spending cuts and reforms that will start us on the path to balancing the budget in 10 years."

Administration officials have been saying for weeks that the looming cuts have already had an impact on the nation's economy. White House officials say the sequester was intended to force a more "balanced" set of deficit reduction measures.

They say the cuts passed by the House do not meet that test. And they said the automatic cuts would have serious impacts on the services provided to some of the neediest citizens.

"While we need to deal with our deficits over the long term, we shouldn't have workers being laid off, kids kicked off Head Start, and food safety inspections cut while Congress completes the process," the White House official said.

The White House has also been aggressively warning about the dangers of the automatic cuts to military readiness. Leon E. Panetta, the departing secretary of defense, said on Sunday's talk shows that the country's security would suffer if they went into effect.

"It is irresponsible for it to happen," Mr. Panetta said on NBC's "Meet the Press" program on Sunday. "I mean, why in God's name would members of Congress elected by the American people take a step that would badly damage our national defense? But more importantly, undermine the support for our men and women in uniform. Why would you do that?"

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NYT > Home Page: Iran’s President Visits Egypt, in Sign of Thaw

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Iran's President Visits Egypt, in Sign of Thaw
Feb 5th 2013, 15:42

Khalid Khaled/European Pressphoto Agency

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran arrived in Cairo on Tuesday.

CAIRO — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad traveled to Cairo on Tuesday, the first visit by an Iranian leader to Egypt since the two countries broke off diplomatic relations three decades ago and a barometer of the shifts in regional dynamics underway since the start of the Arab uprisings.

In a picture made available by Mr. Ahmadinejad's official website, President Mohamed Morsi of Egypt greeted the Iranian leader at the airport in Cairo on Tuesday.

Relations between the two countries have warmed since the toppling of Egypt's former president, Hosni Mubarak, who was deeply hostile to Iran's leadership and portrayed himself to his allies, including the United States, the Persian Gulf monarchies and Israel, as a bulwark against Iranian influence.

Lately, though, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been promoting the idea that the recent Arab revolutions were inspired by the Iranian revolution of 1979.

"Egypt is a very important country in the region and the Islamic Republic of Iran believes it is one of the heavyweights in the Middle East," Iran's foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, told the state Islamic Republic News Agency in Munich on Tuesday. "We are ready to further strengthen ties."

While the Egypt's relations with Iran remains limited, the scene on the tarmac at the Cairo Airport on Tuesday — Egypt's new president, Mohamed Morsi, greeting Mr. Ahmedinejad warmly in a red-carpet ceremony — would have been unimaginable under Mr. Mubarak, and seemed likely to alarm the Obama administration.

Mr. Morsi and Mr. Ahmadinejad discussed "developments in the regional arena," including the war in Syria and "means of enhancing relations between Egypt and Iran," according to Egypt's state news agency. Mr. Ahmadinejad is in Egypt for a three-day visit to attend an Islamic summit.

Since becoming president in June as the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mr. Morsi has framed his approach to foreign policy, including the thaw with Iran, as an effort to chart a more independent course than that of his predecessor and to reassert Egypt's historical regional leadership role. Mr. Morsi has also tried to place Egypt at the center of negotiations to end the crisis in Syria.

In August, in another historic first, Mr. Morsi traveled to Tehran for the summit of the Nonaligned Movement, a visit that was seen as helping to ease Iran's international isolation.

Analysts say it is unlikely that Egypt and Iran will restore full ties, noting the pressure on Mr. Morsi to keep his distance from Iran, particularly from the United States and Egypt's financial benefactors among the Persian Gulf monarchies.

During his visit to Tehran in August, Mr. Morsi embarrassed his hosts by delivering a stinging condemnation of their close ally, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, to the delight of allies like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. In further deference to the Saudis, in a later speech about the Arab uprisings, Mr. Morsi omitted mention of the Shiite-led uprising against Bahrain's Sunni monarchy.

On Tuesday, Egypt's foreign minister sought to deliver further reassurances, saying "the security of the Gulf states is the security of Egypt," according the state news agency.

In Cairo, the Iranian foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi said on Tuesday that the relationship with Egypt was "gradually improving," according to Reuters. "We have to be a little patient," he said.

Kareem Fahim reported from Cairo and Thomas Erdbrink from Tehran.

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NYT > Home Page: DealBook: Seeking Herbalife's Elusive Sales Data

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DealBook: Seeking Herbalife's Elusive Sales Data
Feb 5th 2013, 15:17

Prominent Wall Street investors are arguing acrimoniously over whether the nutritional supplements company Herbalife is a pyramid scheme.

The company's fate, though, will ultimately be determined by ordinary people like Victor Aragundi, a taxi driver from Corona, Queens, who regularly visits a local Herbalife storefront to buy teas and protein shakes.

"They help me reduce weight," Mr. Aragundi said. "They replace regular food."

In many ways, the fight over Herbalife boils down to one question: How many Mr. Aragundis actually exist?

As regulators and investors scrutinize the company's sales, they face a major stumbling block. The public numbers do not provide a clear picture of who buys Herbalife products — and why.

So-called direct-sales companies like Herbalife operate in an accounting gray area that allows them to book goods bought by its network of sales representatives as revenue. Most traditional retailers record sales when a customer buys something.

The uncertainty has left shares of Herbalife vulnerable to wild swings in recent months. On Monday, the stock sank sharply in the morning over fears that the company faced new regulatory scrutiny, but it later shook off the early losses.

Investors are betting on the extremes: Herbalife is a pyramid scheme or it is not.

William A. Ackman, a hedge fund manager, has called the company an abusive pyramid scheme and said the stock was essentially worthless. He says repeat purchasers like Mr. Aragundi are not the main source of Herbalife's sales but rather sales recruits. If a significant number of the recruits fail to sell the goods, they can face large losses.

"Money from the millions of low- and middle-income people at the bottom of the pyramid is being transferred to the tiny fraction of distributors at the top of the pyramid," Mr. Ackman said in an interview. "It's Robin Hood in reverse."

The company has fought back, generating support from big investors like Daniel Loeb and Carl C. Icahn. Herbalife cites its long history of sales growth and its compensation plan, which it says focuses on product sales, not recruitment.

"Herbalife is a financially strong and successful company, having created meaningful value for shareholders, significant opportunities for distributors and positively impacted the lives and health of our consumers over our 32-year history," Barbara Henderson, a spokeswoman for the company, said in a statement.

But it is hard to discern the underlying demand. The company doesn't specify how many of those products are eventually sold to customers outside the sales network. Nor does it detail how many products are consumed by members of its network.

One saleswoman who left Herbalife in October said she saw little consumer demand. "They want to make people believe there is this long line of consumers," said Ana Arias, of Scottsdale, Ariz., who was part of Herbalife's network for three years before quitting. "I realized it was going to go nowhere." Ms. Arias, who is considering legal action against Herbalife, estimates her overall losses at $210,000.

Ms. Arias's name was mentioned in a consumer's complaint about Herbalife that was submitted to the Federal Trade Commission last year. The complaint was one of 188 released by the commission in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by The New York Post.

Frank Dorman, a spokesman for the F.T.C., declined to say whether the agency was investigating Herbalife. In a statement on Monday, the company said that except for "voluntary dialogue with regulators," it was "unaware of any other regulatory interest and/or investigation."

The enforcement division of the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened an investigation into Herbalife, according to a person briefed on the matter. Last year, the agency exchanged letters with Herbalife about its financial disclosures. In 2011, Herbalife stopped including data in its annual report about members' buying patterns, and the agency wanted to know why.

Some people in the Herbalife network say consistent consumption drives profit. Edgar Montalban, an Herbalife salesman who oversees the Queens location that Mr. Aragundi visits, says the store has monthly sales of $4,000 to $5,000. He declined to say what his personal income was from the store, as well as his earnings from sales recruits. "We promote daily consumption," he said through an Herbalife representative.

In theory, Herbalife could silence the critics by disclosing a crucial number in its financial statements: the percentage of sales outside its network. It would be hard to call the company a pyramid scheme if it disclosed that, say, 80 percent of its final sales were to customers, rather than new sales representatives.

Some industry executives have promoted the importance of this number. "The final litmus is, 'Who is the customer?' " Rick Goings, the chief executive of Tupperware Brands, said last week in an interview with CNBC.

More than 90 percent of Tupperware's sales are to people outside its network, he said. The remaining amount, he said, is to sales representatives who like the company's new products. Tupperware, however, does not include this number in its public financial disclosures.

Regulators also emphasize sales such figures.

Last week, the Federal Trade Commission, along with some state attorneys general, moved to shut down Fortune Hi-Tech Marketing, accusing it of being a pyramid scheme. The lawsuit noted that few of the products were ever sold to anyone outside the network.

Herbalife says it does not collect comprehensive data on sales to people outside its network. Herbalife does, however, require its sales representatives to keep records of their transactions.

To address the skepticism surrounding the company's external sales, Herbalife has provided two pieces of new data. The company said 31 percent of its orders in the United States were "directly shipped" to customers outside its network. It also produced a study by a consulting firm, Lieberman Research Worldwide, that found that 92 percent of Herbalife sales went to people outside the company's network.

The study was not based on Herbalife's actual sales data. Instead, Lieberman extrapolated from an Internet survey that the company had more than six million customers. Given the 480,000 Herbalife distributors in America, the firm estimated that only 8 percent of Herbalife products were consumed within that network.

Des Walsh, Herbalife's president, said the study validated the company's view that people in its sales network "are selling to millions of customers outside the distribution channel."

Defenders of Herbalife can point to the meager number of regulatory actions. In theory, an abusive pyramid scheme that produces scores of failed recruits should generate a steady stream of complaints.

That does not seem to be the case with Herbalife.

An official at the office of the attorney general of California said it had received no more than five complaints a year about Herbalife over the last eight years. And those complaints were mostly related to Herbalife's products, not its recruitment practices, said the official, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media on this matter.

Still, pyramid schemes may not produce large numbers of complaints.

In its home state of Kentucky, Fortune Hi-Tech Marketing, which was accused of being a pyramid scheme, received only about a dozen official complaints since 2008, according to the office of the state attorney general. Allison Martin, a spokeswoman for the office, explained that victims of a pyramid were often embarrassed about revealing losses. Fortune Hi-Tech may also have focused on people who were not legal immigrants, which might have made them even less likely to report the scheme, Ms. Martin said.

On a recent winter morning, Herbalife customers in Queens brushed aside the controversy. Mr. Aragundi, the taxi driver, and others streamed into the store for their daily teas and shakes.

"Four years ago I took the product," said Mr. Aragundi. "I lost like 30 pounds."

A version of this article appeared in print on 02/05/2013, on page B1 of the NewYork edition with the headline: Seeking a Company's Elusive Sales Data.

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NYT > Home Page: Lindsey Vonn Hospitalized After Crash in Super-G

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Lindsey Vonn Hospitalized After Crash in Super-G
Feb 5th 2013, 15:13

Luca Bruno/Associated Press

Lindsey Vonn was airlifted by helicopter in Schladming, Austria.

SCHLADMING, Austria — The American skiing star Lindsey Vonn crashed during the super-G race at the world championships Tuesday and was evacuated by helicopter off the course to a hospital.

After fog delayed the race for more than three hours, Vonn was leading in the top split of the race. She crashed after launching off a jump midway down the track. She was catapulted about 500 feet down the course and became unbalanced off the jump. When she landed, she caught an odd angle with her right leg.

Her serviceman Heinz Hammerle said he believed Vonn sustained an injury to her right knee.

Vonn had won 18 of the last World Cup 28 super-G races. Tina Maze of Slovenia, the World Cup overall leader, won the race. Lara Gut of Switzerland placed second and Julia Mancuso of the United States placed third.

Vonn returned to racing in January after missing nearly a month of the season as she recovered from an intestinal illness.

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NYT > Home Page: Bulgaria Implicates Hezbollah in Deadly Israeli Bus Blast

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Bulgaria Implicates Hezbollah in Deadly Israeli Bus Blast
Feb 5th 2013, 15:46

Reuters

Bulgaria's Burgas airport on July 18 after an explosion on a bus carrying Israeli tourists outside the airport.

SOFIA, Bulgaria — The Bulgarian government said on Tuesday that two of the people behind a deadly bombing attack that targeted an Israeli tour bus six months ago were believed to be members of the military wing of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

The announcement could force the European Union to reconsider whether to designate the group as a terrorist organization and crack down on its extensive fund-raising operations across the continent. That could have wide-reaching repercussions for Europe's uneasy détente with the group, which is an influential force in Middle East politics, considers Israel an enemy and has extensive links with Iran.

Bulgaria's interior minister, Tsvetan Tsvetanov, said at a news conference that the investigation into the bombing in Burgas in July 2012 found that a man with an Australian passport and a man with a Canadian passport were two of the three conspirators involved in the attack, which claimed the lives of five Israeli tourists and a Bulgarian bus driver.

Bulgarian investigators had "a well-founded assumption that they belonged to the military formation of Hezbollah," Mr. Tsvetanov said.

Bulgarian officials have found themselves under pressure from Israel and the United States, which consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization, to blame it for the bus attack. But the Bulgarians also have been facing pressure from European allies like Germany and France, which regard Hezbollah as a legitimate political organization, to temper any finding on the sensitive issue.

Mr. Tsvetanov spoke to reporters here after briefing top government officials and security personnel about the state of the investigation.

"We have followed their entire activities in Australia and Canada so we have information about financing and their membership in Hezbollah," he said.

Mr. Tsvetanov did not mention Iran, however, Hezbollah's ally and chief backer.

Analysts said the bombing was just one chapter in a shadow war pitting Israel against Iran and Hezbollah. Israel is believed to be behind the killings of Iranian nuclear scientists. Operatives of the Iranian Quds Force, an elite international operations unit within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, were believed to be behind a series of plots against Israeli targets in Thailand, India and Georgia. Israeli officials said the Burgas attack bore the hallmarks of a Hezbollah operation.

The European calculation all along has been that whatever its activities in the Middle East, Hezbollah does not pose a threat on the Continent. Thousands of Hezbollah members and supporters operate in Europe essentially unrestricted, raising money that is funneled back to the group in Lebanon.

Changing the designation to a terrorist entity raises the prospect of unsettling questions for Europe — how to deal with those supporters, for example — and the sort of confrontation governments have sought to avoid.

"There's the overall fear if we're too noisy about this, Hezbollah might strike again, and it might not be Israeli tourists this time," said Sylke Tempel, editor in chief of the German foreign affairs magazine Internationale Politik.

The significance of their determination has put pressure on Bulgarian officials, who would like to maintain strong ties with Israel and the United States, and European allies like France and Germany. Bulgarian officials had maintained a studied silence for more than six months since the attack.

"If you factor in the suspicion that there are political implications beyond Bulgaria's borders, it's completely understandable that they've been playing for time," said Dimitar Bechev, head of the Sofia office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Mr. Tsvetanov spoke after the meeting of the president's council for national security, which includes the prime minister, top cabinet members and military and security personnel.

Bulgarian officials are acutely aware of the consequences of their findings even though larger European Union members did not exert blatant pressure on them regarding the Hezbollah question. "It was not a campaign," said Philipp Missfelder, a leading member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and the foreign policy spokesman for the party in Parliament. "Some German officials dropped a few words."

But Mr. Missfelder said that attitudes toward Hezbollah were gradually shifting. "It's clear that they are steered from Iran and they are destabilizing the region," Mr. Missfelder said. "The group that thinks Hezbollah is a stabilizing factor is getting smaller."

Hezbollah's dual nature as what Western intelligence agencies call a terrorist organization and a political party with significant social projects, including schools and health clinics, make it more difficult to dismiss. Hezbollah is a significant political actor in Lebanon, and many European officials are particularly wary of upsetting the status quo as the civil war drags on in Syria.

A sort of modus vivendi exists where Hezbollah keeps a low profile for its fund-raising and other activities and Europeans do not crack down. In Germany alone, 950 people have been identified as being associated with the organization as of 2011. The group has always been treated as a benign force, even if assessments of the danger it presented vary greatly.

A senior Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of undercutting an expected statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said Jerusalem was pleased with the Bulgarian report, which he said would "make it much more difficult" for European countries "to circumvent debate about the true nature of Hezbollah."

"We quickly came to the conclusion that Hezbollah was behind it," the official said. "The Bulgarians wanted to dig deeper before they were willing to say in public what they found. And who that led to. They dug deeper and deeper, and the deeper they dug, the closer they got to Hezbollah."

The official said that Israel had shared intelligence reports with the Bulgarian authorities and that the Bulgarian investigators had briefed Jerusalem about their findings, but that Israel purposely kept its distance because an independent report from a European country would be more powerful. "We didn't know what they were going to say," he said. "It was up to them to decide how they want to play this politically."

The Israeli official, along with an Israeli counter-terrorism expert, said that it was not surprising that Iran was not mentioned, because Bulgaria's investigation did not extend beyond its own borders, and was focused on what happened on the ground, not the larger question of who approved or financed the operation.

"The fact that they didn't put their finger in front of Iran and leading to the responsibility of Iran, one cannot blame them," said Boaz Ganor, head of the Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzilya, Israel."You need a different level of intelligence, a different level of facts in your hands, to prove the next level, which is that Hezbollah was conducting that under the initiation or the approval of Iran. That they probably don't have right now."

But Mr. Ganor and others said the connections between Hezbollah and Iran are so well known that they hardly need to be articulated.

"If the Bulgarians have clear proof that Hezbollah is responsible for the attacks, all security services around the world know that Iran is behind it," Mr. Ganor said. "This kind of terrorist attack, which is being defined as a quality attack — this is not launching a Katuysha rocket here or there — when those types of terrorist attacks are being conducted by Hezbollah, it's either by the direct initiation of Iran or at least approval of Iran.

"Anyone who plans such an attack takes into consideration implications of a failure," Mr. Ganor continued. "Hezbollah would not dare to conduct an attack that would not just embarrass Iran but also might cause harm to the Iranian international interests – before conducting such an attack they would get at least an approval of Iran."

Mr. Ganor called the Bulgarian report "brave" and "courageous."

"Many other states, the Western society, even if they had the facts in their hands, would not say that," he said, noting that only a handful of countries define Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. "I think they were very cautious. It took them quite a considerable time. They did that only when they could back it up with concrete facts."

Jodi Rudoren contributed reporting from Jerusalem.

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