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The Deathwatch Phase -- Strategy Page

December 21, 2012: The Syrian rebellion is now in its deathwatch phase. The government is doomed and its forces grow weaker every day. It’s only a matter of time before the government losses control of the entire country and surviving officials flee for sanctuary. Allies (Iran, Russia, China) have been quietly offering refuge to Assad and his senior aides. President Basher Assad keeps making public announcements that he has no intention of leaving. The same can’t be said about the several thousand senior officials he depends on to control the country. Many of these people have committed known criminal acts over the decades and have to fear rebel retribution if they are still in Syria when the rebels win. Many of these officials have already sent their families into exile and when these army and government leaders join their families in large numbers, you’ll know it’s the end. That is expected to happen within the next few months or weeks.

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My Comment: I concur with this analysis .... with the exception that I think that the fighting will last to the end of 2013 .... and if Assad and his military use chemical weapons .... even longer than that. But the dye has already been cast .... the Syrian military may have the weapons, but they are losing men .... and they have only so many men left in this war of attrition. As far as the rebels are concern .... if they lose 2 men (if not more) for every Syrian soldier killed .... they are winning .... and as time makes the rebel soldiers more formidable and experienced fighters .... that ratio will probably become 1:1.