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Last week, the Chinese government sent a civilian surveillance plane, a twin propeller aircraft, to fly near the uninhabited islands at the heart of a growing feud between China and Japan. Tokyo, in response, ordered F-15 fighter jets to take a look at what it considered Chinese meddling. The Chinese then sent their own fighters.

It was the first time that supersonic Chinese and Japanese military fighters were in the air together since the dispute over the islands erupted last year, significantly increasing the risk of a mistake that could lead to armed conflict at a time when both countries, despite their mutual economic interests, are going through a period of heightened nationalism that recalls their longstanding regional rivalry.

The escalation comes amid a blast of belligerent discourse in China and as the Obama administraton delayed a visit to Washington requested by Shinzo Abe, the new prime minister of Japan, the United States' main ally in Asia. After the rebuff, Mr. Abe announced that he would embark on a tour of Southeast Asia intended to counter China's influence in the region. On Friday, however, he cut short the trip to return to Tokyo to deal with the crisis in Algeria over the hostage-taking.

What began as a seemingly minor dispute is quickly turning into a gathering storm, military analysts and Western diplomatic officials warn, as each country appears determined to force the other to give ground.

"What is really driving things is raw nationalism and fragmented political systems, both on the Japanese and even more so the Chinese sides, that is preventing smart people from making rational decisions," said Thomas Berger, an associate professor of international relations at Boston University. "No Chinese or Japanese leader wants or can afford to be accused of selling out their country."

The backdrop for the dispute is the changing military and economic dynamic in the region. In Japan, which rose from the ashes of defeat after World War II to become a dynamic and prosperous global economic power, many experts talk of a nation preparing for an "elegant" decline. But Mr. Abe has made clear that he does not subscribe to that idea and hopes to stake out a tough posture on the islands as a way of engineering a Japanese comeback.

In contrast, Beijing brims with confidence, reveling in the belief that the 21st century belongs to China — with the return of the islands the Chinese call the Diaoyu and the Japanese refer to as the Senkaku as a starting point.

Though Japan is far richer than China on a per-person basis, its economy has been stagnant for years and contracted once again in the second half of 2012. It was hit hard by a slowdown in exports to China after the island dispute erupted in August; Chinese protesters disrupted Japanese plants in China and boycotted Japanese products during the autumn. The value of Japanese exports to China fell by 17 percent between June and November, the World Bank said this week.

China's fast-growing military still lags behind the Japanese Self-Defense Forces in sophistication of weaponry and training, but Japan's edge is diminishing, according to Dr. Berger, an expert on the Japanese military, and other Western defense analysts.

For now the Chinese military wants to avoid armed conflict over the islands, Dr. Berger said, but its longer-term goal is to pressure Japan to give up its administration of the islands. That would give China a break in what is known in China as the "first island chain," a string of islands, including the Diaoyu, that prevents China's growing ballistic submarine fleet from having unobserved access to the Pacific Ocean. Taiwan is part of the "first island chain," as are smaller islands controlled by Vietnam and the Philippines.

"The Chinese leadership seems to think that the cards are in their favor, and if they push long and hard enough, the Japanese have to cave," Dr. Berger said.

A senior American military official said that Washington considered China's decision to send its fighter jets in response to Japan's to be "imprudent" but not a violation of international law. The Chinese jets had entered what is known as Japan's Air Defense Identity Zone but had not infringed Japan's airspace, the official said.