NYT > Home Page: I.M.F. Forecast: Global Economic Growth Modest at Best

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I.M.F. Forecast: Global Economic Growth Modest at Best
Jan 23rd 2013, 15:01

WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday that it continued to expect a modest upturn in global growth in 2013, with fewer risks of policy mistakes and less financial stress.

The fund cautioned, however, that growth is hardly expected to snap back to pre-crisis levels in the coming years. Over all, the fund sees global growth of 3.5 percent in 2013 and 4.1 percent in 2014, up from 3.2 percent in 2012. In the years just before the global downturn, annual economic growth was 4.5 to 5.5 percent.

"If crisis risks do not materialize and financial conditions continue to improve, global growth could be stronger than projected," the Washington-based fund said in its economic report. "However, downside risks remain significant, including renewed setbacks in the euro area and risks of excessive near-term fiscal consolidation in the United States. Policy action must urgently address these risks."

The International Monetary Fund updates its economic projections three times a year in its World Economic Outlook report. This time, it whittled down many of the forecasts for 2013 that it had made in October, knocking 0.1 percentage point from its United States growth forecast, 0.3 percentage point from the euro area and 0.4 percentage point from the newly industrialized Asian economies, like Singapore and South Korea.

The fund said it downgraded its estimate of European growth from October despite "progress in national adjustment and a strengthened European Union-wide policy response to the euro area crisis." It said that there might be "delays" as lower sovereign-bond yields and reduced financial stress eventually translate into improved private-sector borrowing conditions. It added that uncertainty about the ultimate resolution of the long-simmering European debt crisis remains high.

Slow growth in advanced economies, including the United States, Germany and Japan, will continue to weigh on growth in emerging economies, it said.

For Washington, the "priority is to avoid excessive fiscal consolidation in the short term, promptly raise the debt ceiling and agree on a credible medium-term consolidation plan," the fund's economists said. Christine Lagarde, managing director, and other fund officials have repeatedly warned politicians in Washington not to embark on too stringent an austerity program, for the good of the world economy as well as the United States. The fund planned a news conference in Washington to discuss the forecasts Wednesday.

This month, its sister institution, the World Bank, released a rosier economic analysis. It foresees global growth of just 2.4 percent in 2013. But it said that emerging economies could worry less about downside risks from advanced economies and start focusing on domestic economic issues, like labor-market or regulatory reforms.

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