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It was to be one of the defining accomplishments of Jay H. Walder, who, before becoming chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority in 2009, oversaw in London the introduction of the Oyster card, which used a computer chip to track fares and account balances for riders. Mr. Walder spoke excitedly about the prospects of a similar card during his early days on the job in New York.

"You can see creative and innovative things that would happen with this," he said then, adding that even the fare system itself could be overhauled with the cards, allowing the authority to offer discounts depending on the time of day.

Yet agency officials now concede that the MetroCard, which the authority had once hoped to phase out as early as 2012, is not going anywhere anytime soon, despite the rising cost of maintaining the system. And no one is quite sure what will replace it.

At an authority committee meeting last month, officials suggested that a single unfortunate bet had disrupted the project: While other transit agencies invested in contactless payment systems that they would construct themselves, the authority had hoped to evade the burden and cost of building its own. So the agency planned to replace MetroCards with riders' own contactless bank cards, embedded with computer chips to facilitate fare payment without a swipe.

But banks did not issue the cards widely enough in recent years, officials said, scuttling a plan to introduce a new system as early as 2012.

The setback has placed New York City behind the pace of increasingly contactless transit systems in cities like Chicago and even Philadelphia — where tokens have long been prevalent — burdening an already aging system with a fare card that officials say costs too much and does too little.

"This is a real setback," said Andrew Albert, a member of the authority's board. "We've got to get away from this thing already."

The authority said a new system would be put into effect within three to five years. Any further delay could prove perilous; officials have said that the current MetroCard system cannot be maintained beyond 2019.

Michael DeVitto, the vice president and program executive for fare payment programs at New York City Transit, said that there was "no linkage" between the estimates for the new system and the expected breakdown of the MetroCard. He added that he could not "envision any scenario" in which the authority would spend additional money to extend the MetroCard's stay.

Mr. DeVitto said the authority still expected to avoid building its own system, and would rely instead on a third-party device. But it is unclear what form that might take. Options the authority has mentioned recently, besides a smart card, include a key fob or a cellphone payment system.

The authority will also need to accommodate riders without access to bank cards or cellphones. "We're still working that out," Mr. DeVitto said.

The authority would not discuss how much has been spent on the smart-card project already, nor how much it expected to spend to replace the MetroCard.

A capital plan released under Mr. Walder, who left the authority in 2011, called for $247 million to introduce a new fare payment system while maintaining the MetroCard system for as long as necessary.

Some experts suggested that the MetroCard's persistence could be a symptom of chronic agency turnover at the top. When Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo names a permanent replacement for the most recent chairman, Joseph J. Lhota, who quit to run for mayor, the authority will have its fourth chairman since 2009.

"When a new person comes in, they have to reassess. It's only responsible of them," said Richard Barone, the director of transportation programs for the Regional Plan Association, a research and advocacy group. "Obviously, it slows things down."

In recent years, as the authority cycled through chairmen, the program's standing appeared to vacillate between a leading long-term priority and a deferrable luxury expense. Though the first pilot to replace the MetroCard began in 2006, when Peter Kalikow and Katherine Lapp led the authority, the idea became something of a pet cause for Mr. Walder.

He helped execute a successful regional pilot in 2010 that allowed some riders to tap a single smart card to ride parts of the subway, bus, PATH train, and New Jersey Transit systems.

A news release announcing that program called the MetroCard "outdated." But when Mr. Walder resigned suddenly the next year, accepting a private sector job in Hong Kong, the smart card lost its most vocal cheerleader. His successor, Mr. Lhota, shuffled the structure of the project's team, transferring management responsibilities from the authority's headquarters to its individual agencies, like New York City Transit and the commuter railroads.

One of the project's catalysts, Charles Monheim, the authority's former chief operating officer, also left the agency months into Mr. Lhota's tenure.

Mr. DeVitto said he did not believe the turnover had hindered the project. Both Mr. Walder and Mr. Lhota declined to be interviewed for this article.

Under the less centralized plan, some agencies have made ground. The Metro-North Railroad and Long Island Rail Road are seeking proposals from companies to develop an app to allow riders to buy tickets by phone, then display them on their screens for ticket agents to scan.

But for subway riders, progress has been difficult to gauge. "The tactical approach is what we're now revising," Mr. DeVitto said. "You don't see construction going on. It's not visible."

Few at the agency have bemoaned plans for the MetroCard's demise. Producing the cards alone costs nearly $10 million per year, and an authority spokesman said the system's 2,200 vending machines were "magnets for vandals who disable them so they can have more impetus to sell you an illegal swipe."

An authority pamphlet from 2010 estimated that "the M.T.A. spends 15 cents of each fare dollar just to sell or collect that fare." Less calculable, if equally maddening, are the delays caused by riders' failed swipes at subway entrances and their card-dipping aboard buses.

All the while, the authority waits for the governor to name its new leader. The acting chairman, Fernando Ferrer, has made clear that he expects to be rid of the responsibilities shortly. Asked last month what he would like to see replace the MetroCard, Mr. Ferrer demurred.

"I remember the little tokens that are now part of my cuff links," he said. "So I just got used to the MetroCard."

Then he issued a clarification: "I'm not suggesting we go back to the tokens."